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3 US economists win 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics_我的网站

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一 |     Stockholm, Oct 10 (UNI) The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced Monday that three US-based economists won the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences “for research on banks and financial crises”.

The winners are Ben Bernanke, former head of the US Federal Reserve and currently with the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, Douglas Diamond of the University of Chicago and Philip Dybvig of Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri. The winners share a prize of about $900,000.

The nobelprize.org put out a release saying:

"Their discoveries improved how society deals with financial crises

"This year’s laureates in the Economic Sciences, Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, have significantly improved our understanding of the role of banks in the economy, particularly during financial crises. An important finding in their research is why avoiding bank collapses is vital.

"Modern banking research clarifies why we have banks, how to make them less vulnerable in crises and how bank collapses exacerbate financial crises. The foundations of this research were laid by Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig in the early 1980s. Their analyses have been of great practical importance in regulating financial markets and dealing with financial crises.

"For the economy to function, savings must be channelled to investments. However, there is a conflict here: savers want instant access to their money in case of unexpected outlays, while businesses and homeowners need to know they will not be forced to repay their loans prematurely. In their theory, Diamond and Dybvig show how banks offer an optimal solution to this problem. By acting as intermediaries that accept deposits from many savers, banks can allow depositors to access their money when they wish, while also offering long-term loans to borrowers.

"However, their analysis also showed how the combination of these two activities makes banks vulnerable to rumours about their imminent collapse. If a large number of savers simultaneously run to the bank to withdraw their money, the rumour may become a self-fulfilling prophecy – a bank run occurs and the bank collapses. These dangerous dynamics can be prevented through the government providing deposit insurance and acting as a lender of last resort to banks.

"Diamond demonstrated how banks perform another societally important function. As intermediaries between many savers and borrowers, banks are better suited to assessing borrowers’ creditworthiness and ensuring that loans are used for good investments.

"Ben Bernanke analysed the Great Depression of the 1930s, the worst economic crisis in modern history. Among other things, he showed how bank runs were a decisive factor in the crisis becoming so deep and prolonged. When the banks collapsed, valuable information about borrowers was lost and could not be recreated quickly. Society’s ability to channel savings to productive investments was thus severely diminished.

"The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,” says Tore Ellingsen, Chair of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences.

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was not included in Alfred Nobel's will, voanews.com reported.

It was established by the Swedish central bank in 1968 — and is officially the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel" to mark the bank’s 300th anniversary. It was first awarded in 1969 and has been funded by the bank since then.

UNI ING。

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8月9日,新天科创新能源技术有限公司技术人员通过“智慧小新”查看风电场风机运行情况。郭晓超摄这些“大风车”很多高度在100米以上,且地处偏远、环境复杂,一旦出现故障,维修相当不易。“现在好了。”新天科创新能源技术有限公司副总经理许宜菲说,他们积极探索AI在风电运维方面的应用,上线运行“智慧小新”AI智能体,可实现风机故障智能排查和实时预警。目前,“智慧小新”已在公司旗下58座风电场应用,为风电场降本增效、安全运维提供坚实保障。

三 | 巡检作业效率提升18%以上“我在‘云端’修风车。”地处蔚县的新蔚风电场运维人员杨斌,经常爬到百米高空的风机机舱顶部进行检查。近日,新蔚风电场30号风机发生故障。杨斌打开手机端的“智慧小新”,这款大模型提示“变桨闸流晶体管故障”,并推荐了晶体管器件、关联电路等故障排查点。杨斌和同事一起拿着工具前往风机机舱,发现确实是晶体管器件出了问题。他们更换了器件,马上解决了问题。“风机是个庞然大物,由叶片、轮毂、齿轮箱、发电机等各种零部件组成。”杨斌说,以往出现故障,他们需要钻入风机内部,在狭窄的机舱内对相关零部件进行逐点排查,费时费力。而现在,“智慧小新”实时掌握每台风机的运行参数,实现风机故障智能分析诊断,提升了他们运维操作的针对性和效率。“风机运行环境复杂多变,传统人工巡检不仅效率较低,而且在恶劣天气下存在安全风险。”许宜菲说,2020年,面对数字化浪潮,该公司成立大数据中心,搭建风机运行状况智能监测等系统,探索对风电场进行精准运维。风电机组厂家、风机型号众多,数据标准不统一,是风电智慧运维面临的挑战。许宜菲带着技术团队,对运营的风机品牌进行深入研究分析,统一数据口径、统一运维规范,明确数据采集质量、图像分析算法及故障诊断精度等关键指标。这样,不同品牌的风机有了统一的数据标准。同时,他们接入多个主流大模型,整合公司业务数据、技术资料等数据资产,推动风电运维数智化转型,夯实数字底座。

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五 | 在智能问数模块,基于风电生产运营数据库,可进行风电发电效能、设备健康、运行管理三大类业务32个指标的智能问数、快速回答,实现风机数据高效查询、可视化分析与快速响应。“AI技术带来运维变革,优化了风电场资源配置效率。”许宜菲说,目前,“智慧小新”已入库343条高频故障、2.8万余条低频故障,关联超7万条检修记录,为智慧检修提供坚实数据支撑。“智慧小新”上线以来,该公司旗下风电场巡检作业效率较传统人工模式平均提升18%以上。从被动抢修变为主动预防风机智慧检修,已不再是“坏了再修”这么简单。

六 | “非计划停机不仅意味着直接的经济损失,还影响到绿电安全稳定供应。”许宜菲说,“智慧小新”专业化预警分析模块,可通过AI算法分析研判风机设备运行状态,在风机处于“亚健康”时及时预警进行处理,避免小故障演变成大问题。前不久,张家口市崇礼区秋林风电场二期122号风机齿轮箱温度高,触发报警。该风电场运维团队即刻响应,对齿轮箱进行检查,快速完成隐患排查与效果验证。“精准预判才能快速反应。”秋林风电场运维人员梅宇说,借助“智慧小新”提供的预警处置方案,该隐患排查全程用时3个多小时,较过去该故障9小时的平均处理时长,效率大大提升。风机设备早期磨损等隐患隐蔽性强,检查困难。新天科创技术团队集中开展振动类、温度类、超速类、磨损类等数字场景建设,健全故障预警分析体系,精准识别温度异常、刹车磨损、蓄能器压力低等问题,实现潜在隐患早发现、早消除,助力运维模式从被动抢修向主动预防转型。自主创新是爬坡过坎的必由之路。在应用“智慧小新”时,康保县英图风电场创新开发了设备主变油温和油位关系技术,通过智能传感器实时抓取主变油温、负荷、电流等数据。

七 | 当出现油位与温度、功率不匹配时,可快速推送预警信息。“我们的风电场是公司智慧场站建设试点。

八 | ”英图风电场负责人郑雄磊说,他们在场内布设了轨道机器人、声纹传感器、蓄电池在线监测等各类智能终端设备157台套,覆盖6384个设备巡检点,构建全域覆盖、全天候值守、高精度识别的智慧巡检体系。“智能运维的探索,永无止境。”许宜菲说,今年以来,适应风电运维行业“少人化、无人化”趋势,他们持续深耕智能检修,重点开展智慧场站新设备、新工艺的推广应用,为新能源产业高质量发展注入动力。(日报记者 贡宪云)。

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Published on:10:15:27


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