模范秘书三架破飞机闯黄岩岛，菲律宾这步棋比想的阴险，真正目标浮出水面,强国视角,原创 三架破飞机闯黄岩岛，菲律宾这步棋比想的阴险，真正目标浮出水面_我的网站
一 | 菲律宾这次派来闯黄岩岛的三架飞机，加起来的战斗力还不如中国一架武装直升机。但如果你觉得这是个笑话，那就上当了。 The UN General Assembly in New York is meeting Tuesday to discuss ways to make the Security Council more representative and equitable.,The meeting, convened by General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid in a letter dated July 7, is tasked with deliberating the “question of equitable representation and an increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council.” Sahid is expected to present a draft oral decision “following consultations” with General Assembly members.,A draft presented on the UN’s website reaffirms “the central role of the General Assembly concerning the question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council,” and expresses “the commitment of heads of state and government representing the peoples of the world to instill new life in the discussions on the reform of the Security Council.”,The draft proposes the continuation of “intergovernmental negotiations on Security Council reform” at the upcoming 77th General Assembly in September, including the creation of an “open-ended working group” to discuss the matter.,Background,Created as part of the United Nations after the end of the Second World War, the Security Council consists of the world’s five major nuclear powers (Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain) and 10 rotating non-permanent members. Collectively, their main goal is the maintenance of international peace and security.,A key difference between the UN and its Security Council and the League of Nations – the defunct intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of the First World War, is the inclusion in the former of the right for each permanent member to veto substantive resolutions made by other members, such as accepting new members into the UN, or authorizing the use of force against another country.,The veto concept was a hard-fought victory of the Soviet delegation at the San Francisco conference on the UN’s formation. Moscow argued for the right of veto to prevent one or more major powers from ganging up on others to pursue national geopolitical, economic, or military interests at the expense of others using the UN platform to provide such actions with legitimacy.,The veto principle enabled the Security Council and the UN generally to the survive multiple international crises, both during the Cold War and in the three decades after 1991, and ensured that the UN did not collapse, as its League of Nations predecessor did, in times of crisis.,Putin on 75th Anniversary of WWII: Shared Responsibility to History and Future18 June 2020, 19:47 GMT,Why Reform Now?,The Security Council underwent two major reforms: in 1965, when the original non-permanent membership was increased from six to ten to account for the emergence of new countries in the Global South after the collapse of European colonial empires, and in 1971, when the US dropped its veto to allow the People’s Republic of China to take up its rightful seat at the Security Council, replacing Taiwan.,Discussions on reforming the Security Council began anew in the early 1990s, as the United States and its allies, convinced of their triumph and status as leaders of a new global order following the collapse of the USSR, began discussing the "end of history" and conceptualizing ways to make the 21st century an “American century.” On the other side of the debate, rising powers from the Third World began pushing to reform the UN to make it more representative of their interests.,In 2005, rising economic giants India and Brazil, as well as Germany and Japan, the defeated Axis powers, formed the so-called G4 group of nations to support one another’s push for permanent Security Council membership. In 2005, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put forward a proposal to expand the council to 24 members, either by creating six new permanent members and three new non-permanent ones, or eight new non-permanent members of a new class of rotating members and one additional non-permanent seat. In 2017, the G4 announced their readiness to temporarily accept non-veto wielding status to become permanent Security Council members.,Opponents of reforming the Security Council have made arguments on the basis of perceived balance of power-related concerns, such as Pakistan opposing India’s permanent membership, or Spain and Italy opposing German membership, South Korea opposing Japanese membership, and major Latin American powers like Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia opposing Brazil’s membership. Other rising powers, such as Turkey, have argued in favor of the Security Council’s expansion to better represent Asian, Latin American, and African countries.,Moscow has paid a heavy price for its permanent membership in the Security Council, first through its central role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan during the Second World War, and then in 1991, by taking upon itself the entirety of the USSR’s $66 billion perestroika-era debt after the country’s collapse. But Russia has also expressed support for reforming the body to better represent developing nations, particularly India and Brazil, as well as a candidate from Africa. At BRICS summits in 2021 and 2022, Russia and China reiterated their continued support for improving the BRICS’ status at the UN, including via a comprehensive reform of the Security Council.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,In recent months, these calls have grown louder, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in April that countries from the Global South would be an excellent way to curb the “unilateralism” of the West at the UN.,Last week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov reaffirmed Russia’s readiness to discuss the expansion of the Security Council to provide membership to India and Brazil, but not US allies Germany and Japan.,“Russia is calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council based on a broad consensus. It requires increasing the proportionate share of African, Asian and Latin American countries for the UN Security Council to be able to reflect the aspirations of people around the world and be a more democratic body,” Denisov said, speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4.,“At the same time, I would like to be frank – we aren’t ready to support the accession of actors such as Germany and Japan. We don’t see any added value from their potential accession. Given the current balance on the Council – or imbalance, I should say, the membership of the two aforementioned candidates is unlikely to strengthen it, rather it will make the imbalance even more striking,” the diplomat stressed.,An Idea Whose Time Has Come?,“It appears that all nations are aware that the UNSC must become more inclusive and representative of the reality of today’s world,” says Paolo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based think tank.,According to the observer, apart from the 1971 modification of the Council to reflect China taking over Taiwan’s seat, the UNSC of today still largely “reflects the world of 1945.”,“For many years the UNSC has been blocked by cross-veto proceedings, affecting stability and peace in the world. Unblocking the UNSC is the most urgent need for all nations wishing for the effectiveness of a rule-based international systems,” Raffone argues.,Raffone favors adding BRICS countries into the mix, pointing to their collective status representing “the largest share of world population, land and [purchasing power parity],” as well as “spectacular” economic growth over the past two decades. “Their inclusion in the UNSC would certainly strive to keep globalization alive under new rules and governance,” and reduce problems such as lack of democracy, poor geographical representation, and “lack of legitimacy for ensuring global governance” of the current body, he believes.,The observer emphasizes, however, that for any reform initiative to succeed, two-thirds of the UN’s member states would have vote for and ratify it, with every permanent member of the Security Council also needing to agree – no easy task to pull off.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to India5 July, 10:29 GMT,New Multipolar World Order,“The enlargement of the UN Security Council would formally certify, on the international level, the transition from US unipolarism to the new multipolar architecture. It would be an epochal event!” says Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends: International Institute for Global Analyses, an Italy-based international affairs think tank.,Graziani is convinced that the benefits from the body’s expansion would be multifold, including rebalancing power in international organizations “hitherto essentially ‘Westernist’” and “hegemonized” by the West. “Above all,” he says, “enlargement would be essential to ensure greater stability” in the “turbulent geopolitical and geo-economic transition” that the present moment represents.,The observer stresses that any reforms would need to be gradual to prevent an institutional crisis, but admits that “some reforms must be radical,” given the organization’s dominance by Western powers.,Like Raffone, Graziani supports the increased visibility of BRICS nations in the body, citing their outsized significance to global security and the economy and underrepresentation in this sense.,“At the moment we are in a particular situation: on the one hand there is the West led by the United States and the British which constitutes a conservative pole that aims to maintain a hegemonic role on a planetary level, on the other hand there is a set of nations (basically the BRICS countries) which demand a greater presence in global decisions. Within the framework of the UN, the contribution of the BRICS countries would be fundamental since it would guarantee a balance that has not been there so far,” Graziani believes.,The observer stresses that there simply is no alternative to the UN’s authority in international affairs, and that subsequently, “a new, more balanced (multipolar) international forum needs to be set up” in the present situation.。岛人机、C-208、PA-31T，全是些老旧的轻型螺旋桨飞机，别说打仗，连像样的自卫能力都没有。派这种杂牌机队来闯中国领空，看起来像一场闹剧，实则每一步都经过精心算计。它们闯的是中国的领空，真正想拉下水的，却是华盛顿。 要理解菲方意图，得把时间线拉长。
二 | 今年3月，菲律宾就曾派两架C-208侵入黄岩岛领空，被解放军警告驱离。7月，菲公务船多次闯入黄岩岛海域被驱离。8月1日，中国南部战区直接在黄岩岛领海领空组织海空联合演训，摆明了要强化管控。结果仅仅过了二十天，菲方就把挑衅从海面搬到了空中。这个节奏不是随机的，是一套经过设计的切香肠战术。每次前进一小步，试探中国反应底线。中方反应温和，下一步就再往前蹭一点；中方反应激烈，菲方就立刻摆出受害者姿态，向国际社会哭诉中国威胁。 而选择小型飞机而非军用战机，更是精心算计。派战斗机闯领空，那是赤裸裸的军事挑衅，中国完全可以依法采取强硬措施，国际社会也无话可说。但派民用改装的小型飞机进来，性质就模糊了。菲方可以辩称这是巡逻、搜救、民用飞行，把军事入侵包装成低烈度的灰色行动。这种飞机飞得慢、目标小，真要采取强硬手段，舆论上反而容易被倒打一耙，说中国以大欺小、过度反应。
三 | 菲方赌的就是中国在这种灰色地带面前投鼠忌器，既不能真打，又不能不拦，只能反复喊话驱离，而菲方则借此制造我经常来的既成事实。 更值得警惕的是，每一次挑衅都在为美国介入积累素材。菲律宾很清楚，单凭自己的力量，在南海占不到任何便宜。
四 | 它唯一的筹码，就是把美国拖进来。所以每次黄岩岛出事，菲方第一时间不是和中国交涉，而是向华盛顿汇报，邀请美国军舰来自由航行，拉着日本、澳大利亚搞联合巡逻。
五 | 8月中旬，菲海岸警卫队发言人甚至抛出所谓铁三角理论，声称黄岩岛是中国南海战略的最后一块拼图，一旦军事化全球航运都得遭殃。这话根本不是说给中国听的，是说给美国国会和五角大楼听的，目的就是要美国加大对菲军事援助和南海介入力度。
六 | 黄岩岛的战略价值，决定了它注定是博弈焦点。作为中沙群岛唯一常年出水的岛礁，它东距菲律宾吕宋岛仅两百多公里，直面美军苏比克湾基地，扼守巴士海峡进出南海的国际航道。谁控制了黄岩岛，谁就掌握了南海东北部的主动权。对中国而言，黄岩岛与西沙永兴岛、南沙美济礁遥相呼应，一旦完成必要设施建设，就能形成覆盖南海主要航道的战略三角。这也是菲律宾和美国都急着在黄岩岛制造事端的原因，它们要在中国完成布局之前，尽可能把水搅浑。 南部战区这次的回应，措辞和行动都值得细品。发言人用的是跟踪监视、喊话警告，没有升级到更激烈的手段，但同时明确强调正告菲方立即停止侵权挑衅，并表示时刻保持高度戒备。这是一种有节制的强硬，既守住了主权底线，又没有给对方制造升级借口的机会。但克制不等于纵容，8月1日的联合演训已经释放了明确信号，中国在黄岩岛的管控只会加强，不会削弱。 菲律宾应该明白一个道理，靠三架老旧飞机刷存在感，改变不了黄岩岛是中国领土的事实，也换不来真正的安全。把希望寄托在美国的军事承诺上，更是危险的赌博。
七 | 美国需要的是一个牵制中国的棋子，而不是一个把自己拖入战争的盟友。真到了关键时刻，谁会为几架螺旋桨飞机和一个环礁跟核大国翻脸，马尼拉最好想清楚。返回，查看更多。 Current article:http://8b3rtr.jiaopeikongbenlo.pics/list_48et/o91cp.html Published on:05:35:34 |
